2008年7月10日 星期四

hm.....我們不是被嚇大的....

為了呼應昨天馬先生的談話,今天我找了一篇文章與新聞,供大家參考。

壹、 如果Ian Gordon的訪談成真....
但是我今天貼上一篇昨天因為t0mst0ne跟我提的,讓我再去注意一下Long Wave Analyst的動向,我看到一篇文章,我把他剪下來貼在這裡,至於全文,請點選『連結』

Where are we in the cycle today?
Our current cycle started in 1949 with a bear market bottom when the Dow hit 161 points. The spring ended when the Dow peaked at just under 1,000 points in 1966, and summer ended with a bear market bottom in 1982 when the Dow hit 777 points. And winter started with the Dow peak at 11,750 in January 2000. Yes, the Dow has hit higher peaks since then, but I believe that was the onset of winter.
If you understand economic history, you can easily see that where we are today is akin to where we were in 1929........

You say “winter” began in January 2000, but things haven’t been all that bad since. Why not?
That’s entirely due to the actions of the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world. When we did get that peak and the Nasdaq started to collapse, [former Fed chairman Alan] Greenspan panicked and brought interests down from 6% to 1%. He flooded the banking system with money, easy credit fostered another big boom in real estate, and stocks followed because so much money was available. The stock market loves low interest rates.

How bad will it be?

It’s going to be every bit as bad as the 1930s, and probably worse. The principal reason for the Depression was debt. The major portion of our current debt buildup occurred from 1982. Right now, the total U.S. debt is almost 400% of GDP. In 1929, it was only about 170% of GDP.
If we repeat the 1929–1933 experience in the U.S., we’re going to see a GDP that halves. We’re going to see a stock market that loses 90% of its value, and we’re going to see home prices lose 80% of their value. (現在在台南買一棟百坪的高級公寓大概一千多萬,如果真的是這樣...那這筆錢過幾年就可以去台北買帝寶了)

What’s an investor to do?
You have to go to the safest investment of all during catastrophic times. That happens to be gold. The run to gold in the early 1930s was huge, and I think the same thing will happen again.

How do you think investors should play gold?
I think you have to own the physical. I’ve been in gold since 2000, and so have my clients. I’ve also gone into the junior gold sector rather than the seniors, simply because the juniors are levered to a rising gold price. You have to be very fussy about which ones you invest in, but for the most part I’ve found it fairly lucrative.
In winter, you go into defensive mode. Obviously, you want to own your home, but you don’t want to invest in real estate. You don’t want to be in stocks. And you want a great defence by being in cash and gold. It’s that simple.

The benefits of diversification have long been emphasized. Other than gold and cash, what’s available?
That, for most people, will be the kiss of death. Nobody was talking stocks in 1982. There was no interest in the stock market until the bull market started to blossom in 1984. More and more people came in since then, and more and more mutual funds and hedge funds were developed, and every avenue was explored to get people’s money into the investment field. I believe that game’s over.

最讓我擔心的是,到時候會有企業倒閉潮或是員工資遣潮,所以我們應該要多存一點錢,不要做過度的投資....很快我們就可以一起去買帝寶了。

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貳、其實....賠錢的不僅僅是你
剛剛看到一篇新聞,文章名稱叫做『美股慘 投資大師也遭殃』
其實我相信這應該是國外的報導,而我們國內的記者不過就是把他綜合幾來翻譯一下。其內容大致是說,其實這一波股市下殺,許多國際大師也都是賠錢的。可能有很多人都還很莫名其妙,到底誰賠了多少錢?所以我上網找資料,把他貼下來供大家參考。從這個表格我們可以發現,單一投資者績效最好的是Steve Mandel,而我們很多人都知道的『鎖螺絲』,操作非常積極(六個月內買賣了510檔股票),結果績效是差強人意的-10.7%;而巴菲特其實已經算不錯了,只有虧損6.5%。在基金經理人方面,最好的屬於Pickens,獲利15.58%(國內有沒有辦法買他們的基金阿?);而最慘的則是Pabrai,最近虧損43.5%。看來如果我們養一隻猴子,請他射飛鏢,我們的投資績效還可以贏過許多大師。


但是要注意的是,這些人的現金充沛,如果真要攤平,它們往往有足夠的資本與時間來等待下一波高點,所以要請大家注意如果你的現金不夠充沛,千萬不要把部位滿載。


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